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Another Inconvenient Truth An Introduction to Peak Oil October 2007 TheOilDrum.com |
The US was once the leader in world oil production |
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But US oil production began to decline in 1970 |
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No one told the public about the decline • US oil decline gave rise to the oil problems of the 1970s - OPEC, embargo
• Decline continues, year after year
• Decline occurred even with improving technology
• We began to import more oil and moved to a "service"economy
• Truth was too embarrassing to tell |
One by one, other sites have begun to decline also |
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Soon, world oil production will begin to decline • Date not yet certain
• Association for the Study of Peak Oil-USA says "Before 2015"
• Case Western Reserve survey of oil experts says "highly likely" by 2010
• Several experts say 2005 or 2006
• Data suggests peak may be past |
Peak may have occurred about the time of Hurricane Katrina (2005) |
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Where is oil used? • Transportation - cars, buses, trucks
• Food - planting and harvesting, processing, refrigeration, transportation
• Raw materials - asphalt, building materials, clothing, pharmaceuticals
• Energy source - manufacturing |
Rough estimates of future world oil production - if peak is now |
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Sources of data for previous graph • Historical: US energy Information Administration
• Symmetric: Assumes future production will be mirror image of past
• Analyst average: Average of close-date projections by Ace, Bakhtiari, and Robelius |
Future US oil supply will depend on level of imports |
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Level of future US oil imports is very uncertain • Imports likely to decline faster than world oil supply
- Exporters supply themselves first
- Hoarding; civil unrest
• US may be unable to purchase oil
- Balance of payments issues
- Will exporters take more IOUs? |
With less oil, real GDP is likely to decline |
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Why weren't we told? • We weren't told when US production peaked.
• Can we expect to be warned before world production peaks?
• Declining economies are embarrassing. |
Will technology save the day? • Technology didn't prevent the decline in US oil production.
• Technology didn't prevent the decline in North Sea oil production.
• Should we expect it to prevent a decline in world oil production? |
Is there an easy solution? • No, not really.
• Conservation is a partial solution.
• Alternative fuels (solar, wind, biofuels, geothermal) are likely to provide some help.
• New technology like battery-operated cars is likely to be too little, too late.
• We may need to unwind globalization; go back to simpler life-styles, technologies that worked before. |